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We surveyed 1000 Brits to see how good they are at guessing the chances of certain events happening. Interestingly, only 8% of respondents were able to guess that divorce was the most likely scenario, while only 2.4% were able to judge the likelihood of being killed by a shark, compared to other events.
In order to prevent those being surveyed from being overwhelmed, 30 events were divided into three lists of 10. The 1000 people surveyed were asked to order each one of the lists into the order they thought most likely. The positions in these lists for the basis for the comparison questions in the Beat The Odds quiz questions above. These three lists, as aggregated and ordered by those surveyed, are shown below.
| Event | "1 in" Chance |
|---|---|
| Getting a divorce1 | 2 |
| Living to the age of 1002 | 3 |
| Winning at Blackjack in Las Vegas3 | 21 |
| Winning at Roulette in Las Vegas4 | 37 |
| Becoming a millionaire under the age of 405 | 55 |
| Winning at Craps in Las Vegas6 | 167 |
| Dying in a car accident7 | 200 |
| Having identical twins8 | 250 |
| Meeting 'the one'9 | 562 |
| Dying by drowning10 | 1,117 |
| Dying from food poisoning11 | 17,519 |
| An asteroid hitting Earth12 | 300,000 |
| Being dealt a royal flush in poker13 | 666,667 |
| Being killed by a shark14 | 3,748,067 |
| Being struck by lightning15 | 10,000,000 |
| Dying in a plane crash16 | 11,000,000 |
| Winning Gold at the Olympics17 | 22,000,000 |
| Winning the National Lottery jackpot18 | 45,057,474 |
| Winning at Slots in Las Vegas19 | 49,836,032 |
| Becoming a NASA Astronaut20 | 57,030,769 |
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Leaving with a no-deal Brexit |
| 2 | Prince Harry and Meghan Markle staying together |
| 3 | Winning at Roulette in Las Vegas |
| 4 | Meeting 'the one' |
| 5 | Getting a divorce |
| 6 | Winning the National Lottery jackpot |
| 7 | Dying by drowning |
| 8 | Being struck by lightning |
| 9 | Having identical twins |
| 10 | Winning Gold at the Olympics |
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Buying a house in the next ten years |
| 2 | Owning a robot |
| 3 | A second in/out EU referendum to take place before 2020 |
| 4 | Winning at Blackjack in Las Vegas |
| 5 | Dying in a car accident |
| 6 | Dying in a plane crash |
| 7 | Traveling to space |
| 8 | Being dealt a royal flush in poker |
| 9 | Becoming a millionaire under the age of 40 |
| 10 | Being killed by a shark |
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Winning at Slots in Las Vegas |
| 2 | Winning at Craps in Las Vegas |
| 3 | Owning property in London |
| 4 | Becoming a CEO |
| 5 | A trade deal being agreed with US |
| 6 | Marrying a billionaire |
| 7 | Living to the age of 100 |
| 8 | An asteroid hitting Earth |
| 9 | Dying from food poisoning |
| 10 | Becoming a NASA Astronaut |
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